1. Introduction

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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

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Final call (2020 vs 2019):

Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

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3.5 Safeties (S)

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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

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Final call (2020 vs 2019):

Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Team are expected to win .5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Team won more or less than 8.5 games.

Here are the results:

• Tip: Bet UNDER 8.5 wins
• Return On Investment (ROI): +9.7%
• Rank: 26^th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
• Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -163

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the team’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: -5 vs DET, 0 vs GB, -3.5 vs HOU, -1.5 vs IND, 0 vs MIN, +2.5 vs NO, -5 vs NYG, -1 vs TB.
• ROAD: +2 @ ATL, -2.5 @ CAR, +1.5 @ DET, +4.5 @ GB, +1 @ JAX, +3.5 @ LAR, +4 @ MIN, +3 @ TEN.

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18^th, 2020.

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