Comeback teams
CRAZY NBA FACTS FROM THE LAST 14 SEASONS!!!
This 6-article series presents some crazy and interesting findings from all NBA games over the last 14 seasons (from 2002/2003 to 2015/2016).
Today we answer question #5:
Over the past 14 NBA seasons, who made the most comebacks?
We investigate the number of comebacks to win the game made by each team after trailing through quarter 1, 2 or 3. Since the number of comebacks clearly depends on the number of comeback “opportunities” (i.e. the number of times a given team trailed after quarter 1, 2 or 3), we focus on:
Comeback % = Number of comebacks / Number of comeback opportunities
This basically amounts to the percentage of times a team won after trailing through quarter 1, 2 or 3.
Here are the numbers obtained from the past 14 NBA seasons regarding quarter #1:
COMEBACKS AFTER TRAILING THROUGH QUARTER #1 |
|||||
Rank |
|
|
# comebacks |
# opportunities |
Comeback % |
1 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
221 |
378 |
58,5% |
2 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
221 |
459 |
48,1% |
3 |
Houston |
Rockets |
191 |
468 |
40,8% |
4 |
Boston |
Celtics |
197 |
507 |
38,9% |
5 |
Miami |
Heat |
200 |
523 |
38,2% |
6 |
Chicago |
Bulls |
199 |
527 |
37,8% |
7 |
Utah |
Jazz |
200 |
540 |
37,0% |
8 |
Oklahoma City/Seattle |
Thunder/Sonics |
186 |
503 |
37,0% |
9 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
200 |
541 |
37,0% |
10 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
199 |
540 |
36,9% |
11 |
Denver |
Nuggets |
189 |
523 |
36,1% |
12 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
198 |
548 |
36,1% |
13 |
Indiana |
Pacers |
192 |
532 |
36,1% |
14 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
185 |
525 |
35,2% |
15 |
Detroit |
Pistons |
183 |
520 |
35,2% |
16 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
180 |
518 |
34,7% |
17 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
181 |
533 |
34,0% |
18 |
New Orleans |
Pelicans/Hornets |
187 |
556 |
33,6% |
19 |
Los Angeles |
Clippers |
177 |
556 |
31,8% |
20 |
Orlando |
Magic |
175 |
554 |
31,6% |
21 |
Toronto |
Raptors |
170 |
540 |
31,5% |
22 |
Milwaukee |
Bucks |
186 |
604 |
30,8% |
23 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
163 |
557 |
29,3% |
24 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
161 |
552 |
29,2% |
25 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
155 |
558 |
27,8% |
26 |
New York |
Knicks |
160 |
599 |
26,7% |
27 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
155 |
605 |
25,6% |
28 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
140 |
561 |
25,0% |
29 |
Washington |
Wizards |
133 |
551 |
24,1% |
30 |
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
126 |
524 |
24,0% |
Texas seems to be the state where comebacks happen, as the three teams from that state (San Antonio, Dallas and Houston) hold the top 3 spots!!
The San Antonio Spurs comeback performance after trailing through the first quarter is truly stunning. All other teams have a comeback proportion which lies between 24.0% and 48.1%, while theirs is close to 59%. That’s a HUGE gap between them and any other team in the league!
The average comeback probability after quarter #1 turned out to be 34.3%.
COMEBACKS AFTER TRAILING THROUGH QUARTER #2 |
|||||
Rank |
|
|
# comebacks |
# opportunities |
Comeback % |
1 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
147 |
350 |
42,0% |
2 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
189 |
459 |
41,2% |
3 |
Miami |
Heat |
160 |
499 |
32,1% |
4 |
Boston |
Celtics |
155 |
499 |
31,1% |
5 |
Houston |
Rockets |
141 |
463 |
30,5% |
6 |
Chicago |
Bulls |
168 |
554 |
30,3% |
7 |
Indiana |
Pacers |
161 |
531 |
30,3% |
8 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
169 |
562 |
30,1% |
9 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
161 |
537 |
30,0% |
10 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
155 |
526 |
29,5% |
11 |
Oklahoma City/Seattle |
Thunder/Sonics |
142 |
483 |
29,4% |
12 |
Denver |
Nuggets |
150 |
527 |
28,5% |
13 |
Detroit |
Pistons |
150 |
527 |
28,5% |
14 |
Utah |
Jazz |
154 |
546 |
28,2% |
15 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
153 |
555 |
27,6% |
16 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
155 |
569 |
27,2% |
17 |
New Orleans |
Pelicans/Hornets |
146 |
561 |
26,0% |
18 |
Orlando |
Magic |
139 |
553 |
25,1% |
19 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
131 |
526 |
24,9% |
20 |
Milwaukee |
Bucks |
153 |
615 |
24,9% |
21 |
Los Angeles |
Clippers |
137 |
552 |
24,8% |
22 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
139 |
561 |
24,8% |
23 |
Toronto |
Raptors |
138 |
561 |
24,6% |
24 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
140 |
582 |
24,1% |
25 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
135 |
610 |
22,1% |
26 |
Washington |
Wizards |
128 |
592 |
21,6% |
27 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
132 |
612 |
21,6% |
28 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
122 |
591 |
20,6% |
29 |
New York |
Knicks |
120 |
608 |
19,7% |
30 |
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
101 |
530 |
19,1% |
It’s no surprise that the rankings for comebacks after one quarter resemble the rankings after two quarters. San Antonio and Dallas still fill the top 2 spots, but this time Miami and Boston both surpass the Houston Rockets, breaking up the Texas domination!
It is interesting to note that a huge gap is observed between the first two performances versus the rest of the league. As can be seen from the table above, the Spurs and the Mavericks won more than 41% of their games after trailing at halftime, while that proportion drops to around 32% for the 3rd place Miami Heat.
The average comeback probability after quarter #2 turned out to be 27.3%.
COMEBACKS AFTER TRAILING THROUGH QUARTER #3 |
|||||
Rank |
|
|
# comebacks |
# opportunities |
Comeback % |
1 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
92 |
332 |
27,7% |
2 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
116 |
439 |
26,4% |
3 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
127 |
580 |
21,9% |
4 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
120 |
556 |
21,6% |
5 |
Houston |
Rockets |
99 |
459 |
21,6% |
6 |
Miami |
Heat |
106 |
494 |
21,5% |
7 |
Boston |
Celtics |
104 |
492 |
21,1% |
8 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
114 |
547 |
20,8% |
9 |
Chicago |
Bulls |
110 |
541 |
20,3% |
10 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
108 |
546 |
19,8% |
11 |
Denver |
Nuggets |
99 |
513 |
19,3% |
12 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
94 |
490 |
19,2% |
13 |
Detroit |
Pistons |
98 |
518 |
18,9% |
14 |
Oklahoma City/Seattle |
Thunder/Sonics |
94 |
497 |
18,9% |
15 |
Utah |
Jazz |
101 |
540 |
18,7% |
16 |
Indiana |
Pacers |
94 |
504 |
18,7% |
17 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
99 |
539 |
18,4% |
18 |
Toronto |
Raptors |
100 |
588 |
17,0% |
19 |
New Orleans |
Pelicans/Hornets |
98 |
580 |
16,9% |
20 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
95 |
563 |
16,9% |
21 |
Orlando |
Magic |
90 |
559 |
16,1% |
22 |
Los Angeles |
Clippers |
89 |
566 |
15,7% |
23 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
89 |
604 |
14,7% |
24 |
Milwaukee |
Bucks |
88 |
604 |
14,6% |
25 |
Washington |
Wizards |
86 |
596 |
14,4% |
26 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
91 |
635 |
14,3% |
27 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
84 |
609 |
13,8% |
28 |
New York |
Knicks |
83 |
608 |
13,7% |
29 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
84 |
638 |
13,2% |
30 |
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
73 |
565 |
12,9% |
San Antonio and Dallas continue their dominance by getting the first two spots once again. At the other end of the spectrum, the Charlotte franchise finished last with respect to comeback proportions after each of the three quarters.
The case of the Cleveland Cavaliers is interesting: after finishing 10th and 16th for comebacks through quarters 1 and 2 respectively, they ended up in 3rd place in fourth quarter comebacks!!
The average comeback probability after quarter #3 turned out to be 18.3%.
We now turn our attention to the best/worst comeback accomplishments over the course of a single season.
Let’s start with the best at overcoming halftime deficits:
COMEBACKS AFTER TRAILING THROUGH QUARTER #2 |
||||||
Rank |
Season |
|
|
#comebacks |
# opportunities |
Comeback% |
T1 |
2007/2008 |
Boston |
Celtics |
14 |
21 |
66,7% |
T1 |
2012/2013 |
Miami |
Heat |
20 |
30 |
66,7% |
3 |
2008/2009 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
17 |
26 |
65,4% |
4 |
2006/2007 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
18 |
28 |
64,3% |
5 |
2002/2003 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
14 |
23 |
60,9% |
6 |
2004/2005 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
14 |
24 |
58,3% |
7 |
2008/2009 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
11 |
19 |
57,9% |
T8 |
2005/2006 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
15 |
26 |
57,7% |
T8 |
2008/2009 |
Boston |
Celtics |
15 |
26 |
57,7% |
T10 |
2005/2006 |
Detroit |
Pistons |
14 |
25 |
56,0% |
T10 |
2013/2014 |
Oklahoma City/Seattle |
Thunder/Sonics |
14 |
25 |
56,0% |
12 |
2010/2011 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
18 |
33 |
54,5% |
13 |
2010/2011 |
Chicago |
Bulls |
15 |
28 |
53,6% |
14 |
2009/2010 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
13 |
25 |
52,0% |
15 |
2005/2006 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
15 |
29 |
51,7% |
16 |
2013/2014 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
18 |
35 |
51,4% |
17 |
2009/2010 |
Denver |
Nuggets |
20 |
39 |
51,3% |
T18 |
2003/2004 |
Indiana |
Pacers |
15 |
30 |
50,0% |
T18 |
2004/2005 |
Miami |
Heat |
18 |
36 |
50,0% |
T18 |
2006/2007 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
10 |
20 |
50,0% |
T18 |
2010/2011 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
15 |
30 |
50,0% |
T18 |
2010/2011 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
13 |
26 |
50,0% |
T18 |
2012/2013 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
14 |
28 |
50,0% |
T18 |
2015/2016 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
8 |
16 |
50,0% |
No teams did better at prevailing following a halftime deficit than the 2007/2008 Boston Celtics and the 2012/2013 Miami Heat, who both reached a 66.7% win percentage in such cases. As a matter of fact, the Celtics went on a roll during the consecutive 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 seasons, winning 29 out of 47 which is good for 61.7% over that period of time. That’s more than double the league average of 27.3%: unreal!
Recall how the Spurs and Mavericks held the top two spots over the past 14 years. It is thus not surprising to see them appear in the list above, but it is still impressive to see them four times each, among the best 24 performances.
Also note that no team from last year (2015/2016) makes the list above.
Let’s move on to the worst performances at overcoming halftime deficits:
COMEBACKS AFTER TRAILING THROUGH QUARTER #2 |
|||||
Season |
|
|
# comebacks |
# opportunities |
Comeback % |
2005/2006 |
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
4 |
40 |
10,0% |
2011/2012 |
Washington |
Wizards |
4 |
40 |
10,0% |
2003/2004 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
4 |
41 |
9,8% |
2015/2016 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
5 |
52 |
9,6% |
2015/2016 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
6 |
63 |
9,5% |
2004/2005 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
5 |
54 |
9,3% |
2013/2014 |
Milwaukee |
Bucks |
5 |
55 |
9,1% |
2003/2004 |
Orlando |
Magic |
4 |
45 |
8,9% |
2010/2011 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
4 |
49 |
8,2% |
2008/2009 |
Washington |
Wizards |
4 |
50 |
8,0% |
2011/2012 |
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
4 |
51 |
7,8% |
2005/2006 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
4 |
52 |
7,7% |
2009/2010 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
4 |
52 |
7,7% |
2015/2016 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
4 |
53 |
7,5% |
2014/2015 |
New York |
Knicks |
4 |
57 |
7,0% |
2013/2014 |
Boston |
Celtics |
3 |
44 |
6,8% |
2014/2015 |
Denver |
Nuggets |
3 |
45 |
6,7% |
2013/2014 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
3 |
53 |
5,7% |
2008/2009 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
2 |
51 |
3,9% |
2015/2016 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
2 |
57 |
3,5% |
Recall earlier how the 2015/2016 Philadelphia 76ers team was the only one NOT to win a single close game in a season? This team also finished last in second half comebacks by winning only 2 games out of 57, which beat the 2008/2009 Sacramento Kings who won 2 out of 51 in such cases. The 76ers also hold the 3rd-worst performance.
Based on the numbers above, there were few 2nd half comebacks last year (2015/2016). As mentioned earlier, no team from last season made it in the top performances, but we now find 4 teams who finished among the worst 17 comeback proportions (76ers 3.5%, Suns 7.5%, Lakers 9.5% and Nets 9.6%).
The best teams at making 4th quarter comebacks over the course of one season are now presented below:
COMEBACKS AFTER TRAILING THROUGH QUARTER #3 |
||||||
Rank |
Season |
|
|
# comebacks |
# opportunities |
Comeback % |
1 |
2015/2016 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
10 |
17 |
58,8% |
2 |
2008/2009 |
Boston |
Celtics |
12 |
22 |
54,5% |
3 |
2006/2007 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
13 |
25 |
52,0% |
4 |
2012/2013 |
Miami |
Heat |
13 |
26 |
50,0% |
5 |
2008/2009 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
12 |
25 |
48,0% |
6 |
2008/2009 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
11 |
23 |
47,8% |
7 |
2007/2008 |
Boston |
Celtics |
8 |
17 |
47,1% |
8 |
2009/2010 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
11 |
24 |
45,8% |
9 |
2014/2015 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
14 |
32 |
43,8% |
10 |
2003/2004 |
Indiana |
Pacers |
11 |
27 |
40,7% |
11 |
2010/2011 |
Chicago |
Bulls |
11 |
27 |
40,7% |
12 |
2004/2005 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
8 |
20 |
40,0% |
13 |
2010/2011 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
12 |
30 |
40,0% |
14 |
2004/2005 |
Boston |
Celtics |
15 |
39 |
38,5% |
15 |
2004/2005 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
10 |
26 |
38,5% |
16 |
2010/2011 |
Miami |
Heat |
10 |
26 |
38,5% |
17 |
2012/2013 |
Denver |
Nuggets |
11 |
29 |
37,9% |
18 |
2004/2005 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
13 |
35 |
37,1% |
19 |
2010/2011 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
10 |
27 |
37,0% |
20 |
2011/2012 |
Oklahoma City |
Thunder |
7 |
19 |
36,8% |
A fourth quarter comeback occurs 18.3% of the time, on average. Last year’s Golden State Warriors succeeded 58.8% of the time, an all-time record (over the past 14 seasons).
It was shown earlier that the 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 Boston Celtics were great at coming back from halftime deficits. They were also brilliant at making fourth quarter comebacks, taking the #2 and #7 spots. During those 2 seasons, they went 20/39 (51.3%). Similarly, the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 Cleveland Cavaliers went 22/47 (46.8%) in such occasions, which is good for the 6th and 8th spots.
We end this article with team editions that were least efficient at overcoming a deficit through 3 quarters:
COMEBACKS AFTER TRAILING THROUGH QUARTER #3 |
|||||
Season |
|
|
# comebacks |
# opportunities |
Comeback % |
2011/2012 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
2 |
36 |
5,6% |
2007/2008 |
OKC/Seattle |
Thunder/Sonics |
3 |
56 |
5,4% |
2010/2011 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
3 |
56 |
5,4% |
2007/2008 |
Miami |
Heat |
3 |
57 |
5,3% |
2008/2009 |
Washington |
Wizards |
3 |
57 |
5,3% |
2014/2015 |
New York |
Knicks |
3 |
58 |
5,2% |
2012/2013 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
2 |
40 |
5,0% |
2008/2009 |
New York |
Knicks |
2 |
42 |
4,8% |
2009/2010 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
3 |
66 |
4,5% |
2002/2003 |
Miami |
Heat |
2 |
47 |
4,3% |
2006/2007 |
Houston |
Rockets |
1 |
24 |
4,2% |
2013/2014 |
Utah |
Jazz |
2 |
50 |
4,0% |
2004/2005 |
New Orleans |
Pelicans/Hornets |
2 |
57 |
3,5% |
2008/2009 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
2 |
57 |
3,5% |
2015/2016 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
2 |
63 |
3,2% |
2009/2010 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
2 |
67 |
3,0% |
2013/2014 |
New York |
Knicks |
1 |
36 |
2,8% |
2007/2008 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
1 |
52 |
1,9% |
2011/2012 |
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
1 |
54 |
1,9% |
2015/2016 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
0 |
59 |
0,0% |
We add another not-so desirable feat to the 2015/2016 Philadelphia 76ers season: they were the only team NOT to make a single comeback after trailing through three quarters over the course of one season. They actually missed on all of their 59 occasions.
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New York Knicks appear 3 times in the bottom 20 performances listed above. Each have a two-year streak where they did poorly regarding 4th quarter comebacks (Minnesota succeeded only 6 times out of 122 for 4.9% in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, while New York succeeded 4 times out of 94 for 4.3% in 2013/2014 and 2014/2015).
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Thanks a lot for reading! Here is what’s coming up in next (final!) article:
Over the past 14 NBA seasons,
Source: https://www.basketball-live-betting.com/